I will protect your pensions. Nothing about your pension is going to change when I am governor. - Chris Christie, "An Open Letter to the Teachers of NJ" October, 2009

Sunday, February 26, 2012

Who Has a Job For Life?

Not teachers; politicians:
Success of congressional incumbents has become something of a half-funny joke recently.  These are the figures for those Representatives who sought reelection in the 13 biennial national elections for 435 U.S. House seats from 1982 through 2006:  95.17% of incumbents who sought reelection were successful.  What's more, an average of 396 of the 435 incumbent seat holders sought another term, leaving only 39 "open seats" each biennium for new Members of Congress (Jacobson 2008, 28-29).  You can see these effects graphically via thirty-thousand.org - Reelection Rates of Incumbents in the U. S. House, and Duration of Representatives’ Incumbency in the U. S. House.  Rounding the 4.83% of winning challengers to 19 freshmen, another 39 get there the easy way by filling a seat vacated by a departing incumbent.  So about two-thirds (39 of 58) of freshmen only get there from good fortune of facing no incumbent. 
    [...] 
    The Senate has not been much better:  86.98% of incumbents were winners in the 1982-to-2006 period.  Only 33.3 Senate seats on average are up each biennium (a first 33, another 33, then 34 to tally 100; and back to the first 33).  In the 13 elections of 1982 to 2006, that's 433 senators who could seek reelection; and 361 of them did so, leaving just 82 vacated open seats for new senators.  By rounding the 13.02% of challengers who broke through against incumbents to 38 freshmen, that's 85 of 113 freshmen who got there by virtue of avoiding a collision with a senatorial incumbent.  And in 2006, there were 6 incumbent senatorial losers, all Republicans.  At least one, George Allen of Virginia, was a surprising loser considering that he was prominent among those expected to contend seriously for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination.  All that's gone now. 
[...]
     The year 2008 was no change in these numbers.  You can see turnover and defeats in the House here:  United States House of Representatives elections, 2008 - retiring incumbents.  The 435 members of the 110th House of 2007-08 mostly ran for reelection, with just 33 incumbents retiring, leaving 402 up for election in November 2008.  Of those, 23 lost (4 in primaries, 19 in general election) and 379 won, producing a reelection rate of 94.28%.
It's no better at the state level; take New Jersey:
Redistricting tie-breaker Alan Rosenthal’s decision to support a legislative redistricting map drawn up by Democratic commission members can be summed up in two words: status quo. 
Rosenthal’s decision yesterday makes it likely not only that Democrats will continue to hold their majorities in both the state Senate and the state Assembly in next November’s election, but also that 90 percent of incumbent legislators will be reelected with relatively little difficulty. [emphasis mine]
These are the same loudmouths who rail on and on that teaching amounts to a "job for life." That, of course, is utter nonsense; the turnover rate in teaching is far, far higher than the turnover rate for elective office.

These people are hypocrites, but they are also completely shameless. That's why so many want a massive testing regime for our kids, but not their own. You can't convince them with reason; you have to publicly embarrass them into doing the right thing.

I know that makes some of you queasy, but I have to be honest: it's the only way we will win. Deal with it.

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

Sometimes i think you are used to teaching something heretofore incomprehensible (music) to a naive audience (sixth graders).

Obviously, the phrase "job for life" does not include anyone other than those who WANT the job and are fired. The number cited by Christie of 17 of those removed for incompetence while fighting it is actually high. It is more like 4.

Anonymous said...

Jazz,please don't waste time responding to clods who haven't done their homework.

Hey anon (above), you didn't take any classes in rhetoric (or civics), eh?

You're the one falling for the ol' refrain, the slogans, the glittering generalities. Christie and Cerf sing and you dance.

Are the bad teachers working in your town? How many of them do you want fired?

Anonymous said...

Are there bad teachers working in my town? I don't know, I hear there are some with bad reputations, who somehow don't end up teaching other teacher's kids, who are out the door at the click of closing, who also seem to be absent way more than others.

But there is no measurement that I know of to actually identify "bad" teachers, yet. When there is, I want them to be quickly counseled. And if they are still bad teachers, I want them fired -- all of them. And if a handful get fired that were really sort of average than bad, that is good, err on the side of excellence, not mediocrity.

PS: I feel the same way about airline pilots, neurosurgeons, police officers, EMTs, and a bunch of other jobs where mediocrity ruins lives.

Anonymous said...

Anon, I see you are of the old school: you give no quarter, and, I assume, ask for none. You know, some of us liberal types feel the same way.

Let’s all sing along . . .

People talking in movie shows,
People smoking in bed!
People voting Republican,
Give them a boot to the head!

Mechanics who can't fix a car,
Politicians who can't think!
The salesman who won't leave me alone,
The waiter who forgot my drink!

Boot to the head! Nah, nah..
Boot to the head! Nah, nah..
Boot to the head! Nah, nah..
BOOT TO THE HEAD!!

“Boot To The Head"- The Frantics http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8VD4JXUozM

Anonymous said...

Ad hominems (shrug). That is the hand y'all are dealt on this subject, deflection, threats of violence, namecalling.

Well played.

Duke said...

Anon #1: Please read the links before you comment on them. It's all spelled out there.

Source for your "more like 4"?

Anonymous said...

Lighten up, Savonarola.

Your ranting about airline pilots, neurosurgeons, police officers, EMTs, etc. is just as silly as the Frantics song--at least they were kidding. (I hope your life hasn't been troubled by members of the professions you list.)

No one wants to boot your head--and no one is spending a Sunday evening hoping that you will lose YOUR job.

aweislogel said...

Dear "Anonymous said..."I find your posts to be both ignorant and offensive and I'm calling you out.
In your earlier post you stated (and all credit goes to YOU here)
"Sometimes i think you are used to teaching something heretofore incomprehensible (music) to a naive audience (sixth graders)."
I do happen to teach music to 6th graders so please, go on. Enlighten me with all the research showing that music is incomprehensible and that 6th grade students are 'naive' enough to believe that it is in fact worth understanding. While you're at it maybe you could research YOUR POINT on politics and present some accurate assertions for a change.

Duke said...

Hey, aweislogel - a fellow music teacher! Thanks for all you do to bring music into kids' lives!

aweislogel said...

Right back at you Duke!

Anonymous said...

@Duke. Four was the number Politifact came up with when they called out Christie. It has been posted here before.

@music teacher. My point is the Duke tends to be patronizing sometimes (others informative, tho), but patronizing to the point where I picture him as rather lazily used to presenting ideas and concepts to an audience from whom he can expect no challenge.

If you hadn't caught your skirts up in the coincidence I chose 6th graders, I suspect you would have figured that out.

Anonymous said...

@Duke. Four was the number Politifact came up with when they called out Christie. It has been posted here before.

@music teacher. My point is the Duke tends to be patronizing sometimes (others informative, tho), but patronizing to the point where I picture him as rather lazily used to presenting ideas and concepts to an audience from whom he can expect no challenge.

If you hadn't caught your skirts up in the coincidence I chose 6th graders, I suspect you would have figured that out.

Duke said...

Anon: I can't decide which is more hysterical:

1) You complain about ad hominems, but attack my abilities as a teacher, or

2) You think "presenting ideas and concept" to 6th graders means not being challenged.

Anonymous said...

Actually, I was criticizing your ability as a blogger. You might be the best teacher in New Jersey. Or the worst. I don't know. You don't know. Nobody knows. Nobody cares, apparently, about the quality of your profession enough to bring together all parties enthusiastically in monitoring and bettering it.

It's sad, the grownups can't agree, they all have agendas and self-interests, and the children suffer.

Anonymous said...

Actually, I was criticizing your ability as a blogger. You might be the best teacher in New Jersey. Or the worst. I don't know. You don't know. Nobody knows. Nobody cares, apparently, about the quality of your profession enough to bring together all parties enthusiastically in monitoring and bettering it.

It's sad, the grownups can't agree, they all have agendas and self-interests, and the children suffer.

Anonymous said...

"If you hadn't caught your skirts up"? No, toughguy, our panties are in a bunch (knickers in a twist) and we have a case of the vapors!