I will protect your pensions. Nothing about your pension is going to change when I am governor. - Chris Christie, "An Open Letter to the Teachers of NJ" October, 2009

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Hillary - If Only...

Cath Lugg points out:
At least someone in the Obama White House gives a damn about dead queer kids.
I voted for her in the primary, but I did have my misgivings: I don't like the idea of family political dynasties, no matter how competent she is.

Now, I can't believe I even hesitated. She would have been a hell of a president. If only...

School Funding Fairness

Bruce Baker and the ELC have published a very important report on school funding fairness. It's an issue that needs to be considered in the current "reform" climate, especially here in NJ.

In fact, the National Report Card could hardly put NJ it a better light: we not only provide a lot of money to the schools, we distribute that money more equitably among wealthier and poorer districts than just about any other state.

But what happens when you cut the total pool of funding?

I always thought that this was where Christie was headed: he was moving the pieces into place for a 'burbs-vs-cities education funding war. He'd end all state funding going back to the 'burbs, his base would get pissed, and he'd have public opinion behind him to overturn Abbott or SFRA or whatever it is that sends money to city schools. I thought that was what the whole point of the John Wallace controversy.

But it really hasn't played out that way so far. The photo-ops with Cory Booker, the charter school push, the war with the NJEA - none of it has really led to a message for the 'burbs that says, "Blame the city schools for your taxes!" It's all been the greedy teachers' fault.

But just wait - it's coming. He will stab Booker in the back and gut state funding for Newark schools faster than the time it takes him to put on his makeup for his next Morning Joe appearance. He did it to Sweeney and he'll do it to anyone if he feels he can get a few political points.

Anyway, read the report; it's important to think about this going forward.

Scrooge

He just LOVES sticking it to his employees, doesn't he?

TRENTON -- State employees could be eating turkey one day and bagging it for lunch the next under a decision by Gov. Chris Christie's administration to rescind the customary day off after Thanksgiving. 
A memo from the governor's office has announced that employees will not be able to take the traditional "Black Friday" off from work even though former Gov. Jon S. Corzine had allowed the unions to trade for that day in a Memorandum of Agreement signed in June 2009. 
The unions had exchanged Lincoln's Birthday in February as part of the agreement. State workers receive a total of 13 holidays. 
[...] 
In his memo announcing the decision, David A. Cohen, director of the Governor's Office of Employee Relations, said that legislation was needed to make the holiday change because under current law, Lincoln's Birthday is still a state holiday until 2012. 
Hence, employees could be given the day after Thanksgiving off and then end up with Lincoln's Birthday off, too, Cohen said in the memo. 
The memo indicated that Christie, a Republican, is not interested in seeing last-minute legislation, because the Democratic-controlled Legislature has not seen fit to pass a series of proposals aimed at reducing property taxes. 
"It is the position of the governor that seeking legislation, in these difficult economic times, would not be a productive use of the Legislature's time," Cohen wrote.
Dear lord, that is pathetic. He won't even allow a bill to take care of this without stamping his feet and holding his breath until he turns blue.

And I'm sure the retailing community in NJ is going to be very happy that state workers will not be available to shop on the busiest day of the year in the middle of this fragile recovery.

This is what we're dealing with, folks: a mean, little, vindictive man who insists on making life as difficult as it can be for the people who work under him.

Is this what you really want, America?

No, no, not HER!

Please, please, no...
TRENTON — Gov. Chris Christie has courted Michelle Rhee to become the state’s next education commissioner, but the job’s distance from her family may prove an insurmountable stumbling block, two officials familiar with the negotiations said.
When state officials initially approached Rhee, the former chancellor of the Washington, D.C., public schools, she quickly turned back the overture, thinking the governor wanted her to make a lateral move and run the Newark Public Schools. Even Oprah Winfrey endorsed the possibility of Rhee becoming Newark’s next superintendent.
In fact, the Christie administration wanted Rhee to consider the vacant state education commissioner’s post, a more attractive offer to her because it signified a step up on the ladder of national education reform influence, according to sources who sought anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss confidential matters. But the state could not get Rhee “past the gate” because of frustration that a move to New Jersey would take her away from her family.
First of all, Rhee gave up any pretense of being anything more than a political hack when she stepped into the DC mayoral race. When you say that your patron's loss is "devastating" for the children of your city, you're pretty much giving into the political gamesmanship a school superintendent should be above.

But that's probably what's so appealing about her to Christie; her fealty to her boss, combined with an incessant need to preen in front of cameras, clearly makes her a winner in his eyes.

That and her ability to throw aside all of the serious studies of value-added modeling - which overwhelmingly say not to use it in retention and merit pay schemes - and put in place an "idiotic" system that doesn't work, demoralizes teachers, and serves as a symbol of the crass politicization of our schools.

It's also worth pointing out that this is a woman who has never been properly vetted by the media. She's staked her career on three - THREE! - years of teaching with results so sweet that the press has gobbled them up like ice cream. Bob Somerby has been looking at Rhee for some time now:
What does Rhee say she learned here in Baltimore? According to Rhee, students performing far below grade level quickly achieve at the highest levels—if they’re exposed to a quality program. In our view, that’s a pleasing, music man’s tale; it has taken the place, in the past forty years, of serious thought about low-income schools. But as we’ve shown you, there is no evidence that this educational miracle ever occurred in Rhee’s classroom. And quite frankly, her pleasing tale about national acclaim has been looking a bit shaky too.

Here at THE HOWLER, we don’t know what happened in Michelle Rhee’s classroom. But in our own thirteen years in the Baltimore schools, we came to regard that pleasing tale as the hallmark of hustlers, con men and do-dos. (For the record, we were inclined to believe it too—before we spent time in the classroom.) It substitutes for serious thought—and wins big pay-days for its adherents. Everyone loves to hear this tale. And no one seems to care if it’s true.

DC’s news orgs can do as they will. But at present, there is no real evidence—none at all—that Rhee’s miracle ever occurred. But here’s the question: Will these newspapers do their job—will they try to check Rhee’s claims? Or will they do what they so often do? Will they decide to serve the elites whose members file into their board rooms?
She sounds perfect for the NJ press. I'm sure they'll all tell us what a master teacher Rhee was without a shred of proof; if it's out of Christie's mouth, they believe it.

Monday, October 18, 2010

Sucker

Senator Sweeney, when you stood up next to the governor and announced the tax cap, did you not think this would happen?



This video is straight from the governor's office, clearly pressuring you to move on his agenda. You've let him set the terms of the debate, and now he's painted you into a corner. And he's got no problem taking a cheap shot at you, even after you kissed his ring.

Don't worry, Cory - he'll stab you in the back too. It's how they roll.

Suckers...

Toolkit Gets Out Those Stubborn Stains!

Toolkit does it all!
Christie’s reason for urgency is simple: His financial promises for next year — in short, not raising taxes — rely on those toolkit proposals getting in place, said Brigid Harrison, political science professor at Montclair State University.
“His budget doesn’t work without it,” she explained.
Professor, could you or someone else - ANYONE - actually run a cost-benefit analysis and show us how this vaunted toolkit is going to save us so much money? So much money that towns and schools - many of which have lost most or all of their state aid - will not have to raise their property taxes or slash their services like they did this past year?

Until someone credibly does that, why should I believe in this miracle cure?
The toolkit proposals would limit union contract payouts, relax Civil Service rules, reduce the number of people eligible for state pensions, and make mergers of local services cost-effective by eliminating job-bumping rights and payouts for some contract benefits. In a town hall meeting in Ewing, Mercer County, last week, Christie had a message for legislators: “It’s time to get to work.”
So, the plan is to bump workers out when consolidation just magically happens. And that's going to save us so much dough that we can easily pay for extreme hikes in health care costs AND make all of our past-due pension payments.

I suppose the Toolkit can also make me a great tasting cheesecake with zero calories...

Sunday, October 17, 2010

President Chris Christie

Lord help us all:
All signs are pointing to a Chris Christie campaign to be on the 2012 presidential ticket.  He has started this campaign already by crisscrossing the country to promote Republican candidates in state-wide races. 
[...] 
Given the secret funding of Republican candidates by shadow groups, the fact that the GOP has a propaganda arm in Fox News that is second to none, including Pravda, and the fact that the 2012 election will be the first under the census redistricting controlled mostly by Republican governors, there’s a good chance that Barack Obama will be a one-term president.  If Christie is not on the 2012 ticket, his next chance to run for national office could potentially be 2020 – a lifetime in presidential politics.  Sure, he’ll be only 58 years old then, but he will have had a much longer track record of mistakes and miscues than he has today.  And the demographics of the electorate will be different, with a larger percentage of the non-white population included in the mix.
I think deciminyan is right - he'd be crazy not to give it shot. Hell, Palin's practically the front-runner and she wasn't even governor for an entire term - why not him? And the Republicans have historically rewarded their perennials with nominations: Dole, McCain, Bush 41, Reagan - all took multiple runs at the nomination. What's he got to lose by making a bid this time around? He can always try again.

But I think there's a good chance he begs off a second term as governor, even if he doesn't get the presidential nod. The longer he stays in NJ, the worse it will be for his political future. He is running this state into the ground and the mess he's going to leave behind will be enormous. He needs to get out while the getting's good.

Just Smelling That Money!

Mmm, mmm!
In short, education reform is a good cause. Experimentation is good -- and some of the best charter schools today have experimented in what could be valuable ways. But the push, coming from Wall Street and the extremely wealthy, for this specific form of charter schools, for this specific way of funding them, is part of both short-term and long-term drives for profit that will accrue to the wealthiest while weakening the middle class. The question is not whether we should back away from the cause of education, or the cause of education reform. The question is in whose interests it should be done and who should most strongly influence the outcomes.

The Magical, Mystical TOOLKIT!

The Toolkit is all-powerful! It can solve EVERYTHING!
The cap was just two bills in a 33-bill reform package Gov. Chris Christie unveiled in May. His tool kit was not just about putting a hard cap on tax increases and government spending increases, it was about loosening the rules of the game so towns, school districts and other government units could start to drastically reduce spending and require fewer taxpayer dollars to operate.
It's like running a business -- you don't have to increase the price of merchandise in the store when the rent goes down and other overhead costs are reduced.
That's what Christie's tool kit is all about.
Oh, it's just like running a business, is it? I find it very, very funny to hear NEWSPAPERS - which are dying across the nation - lecture about running businesses. But if you really want to make that analogy:

1) You can't expect people to be happy to pay MORE for your merchandise when the quality is reduced - just like people are paying MORE in property taxes and their school programs and town services are being slashed. Businesses raise their prices all the time, but no good business ever charges MORE while giving their customers LESS.

2)  When your rent goes down, that doesn't necessarily make up for the explosion in your other costs - say, health care and pension liabilities. Which the toolkit does NOTHING to contain.

3) The entire "run business like government" analogy is just plain STUPID anyway! Schools are not businesses; towns are not businesses. Most businesses fail; we can't afford to have ANY schools fail.
It's insane. If the majority Democrats in the state Senate and Assembly think all they have to do is install a cap and just sit on their hands and hope the public and the governor forget about the other reforms, they're fools. They're fools who, like the leaders of public worker unions who support them, seem to think that if they dig in their heels enough, that New Jerseyans' desire for lower property taxes will disappear, that the budget deficits this state faces will vanish and that everything will be alright for them again, like it was in years past when governors were afraid to push for real spending reform.
Oh, it's insane alright: insane to think that runaway spending is the problem.

Again: NJ ranks 40th - 40th!!! - in spending as a burden on income. We pay our teachers less than those right across the border in NY. Our pensions are well in line with other states in the region. Public employees who have college degrees make significantly less than those in the private sector. Teacher salaries have grown more slowly than the average salary in NJ. I've linked to this data over and over again on this blog - these facts should not be in dispute.

Spending is not the issue: taxation is. Everyone agrees we rely far too much on property taxes, yet no one is willing to come out and address this problem. It's so much more fun to beat up on unions, don't you think?

Civil service reform is not going to solve this. Making hearings less expensive isn't going to solve this. Allowing furloughs isn't going to solve this. Capping pay and benefits isn't going to solve this. Again - we are 40th in spending as a percentage of income! How much lower are we going to go?

Is there anyone with the intellectual capacity of a fairly smart 12-year-old who is going to come out and say we have so many more unnecessary cops and social workers and teachers in NJ than in other states? This is REALLY the problem? Seriously?

But our media just refuses to even allow this counter argument to be made - to the point that the contradictions have become embarrassing:

Among the tool kit bills that would help greatly: 
[...]
Allowing furloughs by local governments. 
[...] 
Meeting with the Courier-Post Editorial Board Thursday to discuss the frighteningly high number of police officers, firefighters and other city workers Camden will soon have to lay off, Camden Mayor Dana Redd -- a Democrat and a former state senator -- also made sure to mention that the tool kit legislation is needed.

So, to avoid layoffs... we need to allow furloughs?!?!

This has gone beyond stupid. When are we going to inject some sanity into this discussion?

Ledger Logic - Wage Cap Edition

Regular followers of this blog know that one of my great frustrations is a press that seems incapable of analyzing what they are reporting. Take today's editorial in the Star-Ledger on wage caps for public workers (from the 10/17/10 print edition - it's not online (???)):
If the foot-dragging Democrats in the state Legislature need a starting point for passing the remainder of the governor's toolkit, we have it: A cap on labor costs. 
[...]  
Under Christie's proposals, the cost of salaries and benefits for public workers would be capped at 2.5% annually. The Legislature and the governor can haggle over the details - maybe place health benefits outside the cap - but a cap is crucial.

Let me repeat one of my favorite statistics regarding NJ wage costs: wages grew 162% for the average worker in NJ over the period from 1985 to 2008 (the last year data is available). For teachers, wages grew 150%.

Using this handy return rate calculator, that 162% translates into just about 4% annually; teachers are around 3.9% annually during the same period.

Given this, how can anyone support a 2.5% cap on wages and still expect high-quality workers to stay in public service professions?

"Wait!" says the S-L:
Union representatives call binding arbitration a bogeyman and predict a separate cap for teachers would make them paupers again. But it would take years for the pendulum to swing back that far - and the cap could be adjusted in better economic times.

Well, why not do that right now? Tie all teacher raises to the current wage inflation of the average NJ worker - seems fair, right? Except we would wind up paying teachers MORE than we pay them now; doesn't really solve the problem, does it?

Now, I know what the teabagging crowd says to that: "Gold-Plated Benefits!" Which is EXACTLY the point: the cost-drivers for the state are pensions and health care. And not just health care for public workers, but all public spending on health care.

A wage cap does nothing to address exploding health care costs or the pension holiday the state took for years and now must pay for. It also does nothing to fix the regressive tax system we have that has turned the state into a banana republic.

But, as looney and ineffectual as a wage cap is, "serious" people know it's something we must have.